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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 240539
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles east of Great Abaco Island in the
Bahamas, and on Tropical Storm Lee, located over the central
Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
    ...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.9, -50.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane Lee

  • Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 24
    Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240624 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Special Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 ...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 230 AM AST...0630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 50.1W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 230 AM AST (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently stationary. A drift toward the southeast is expected to begin later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours. Lee is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 24
    Issued at 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240624 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 50.1W AT 24/0630Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 50.1W AT 24/0630Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 50.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 24
    Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240625 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Special Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Infrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in Lee's central dense overcast. This special advisory is thus being issued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds. The intensity forecast has been significantly increased based on the current intensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat modified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0630Z 31.9N 50.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 31.8N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.5N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 30.9N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 30.2N 48.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 30.0N 50.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 31.5N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 34.5N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
    Issued at 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LEE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0600 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 0630Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Graphics
    Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:30:00 GMT

    Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 06:30:01 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
    ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 the center of Maria was located near 27.0, -72.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Maria

  • Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 32
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United States southeast coast during the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 32
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240254 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 72.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 210SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 72.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.5N 73.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.5N 72.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 32
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240256 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt. However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 100 kt in this advisory. During the next 24 hours while Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then begin. Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude 34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to the North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance. These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area on Sunday. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 27.0N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 31.5N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 33.2N 73.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 34.5N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 35.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 240255 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 4(23) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 3(25) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 4(27) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 4(32) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 2(18) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 27(37) 14(51) 3(54) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 3(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 9(34) 2(36) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 23(32) 10(42) 3(45) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 21(29) 10(39) 2(41) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 6(27) 2(29) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 7(24) 1(25) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 6(24) 2(26) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) SAN SALVADOR 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Graphics
    Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:03:25 GMT

    Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:31:53 GMT ]]>

 

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NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240524
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar, located near the southwest coast of
Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorms over the far eastern Pacific. Some gradual
development of this system is possible before the system moves
inland over Central America in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Pilar are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Pilar are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Pilar (EP3/EP182017)
    ...PILAR MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Pilar was located near 19.0, -105.4 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Pilar

  • Tropical Storm Pilar Public Advisory Number 2A
    Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240550 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...PILAR MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El Roblito, including the Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.4 West. Pilar is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north to north-northwest track is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Pilar will move over or very near the coast of Jalisco later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is likely today before Pilar approaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum of 15 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, western Jalisco and Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the southern portion of the warning area this morning, and gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240256 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.3W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240256 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 The structure of the cyclone near Mexico has improved over the past 6 hours. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now support an estimated intensity of 35 kt, so the system is now classified as Tropical Storm Pilar. The initial motion based on recent satellite fixes is 350/4 kt. Pilar is still expected to move generally toward the north-northwest or north to the east of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico for the next couple of days, and the primary source of uncertainty in the forecast is possible interaction with land. Due in part to initial position uncertainty, the global models vary on whether Pilar will clip the coast of Jalisco or remain just offshore, but the model consensus now shows a landfall in about 24 hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the east toward the model consensus, but it is certainly possible that the tropical storm could remain offshore and enter the Gulf of California. Regardless of whether the center makes landfall or not, heavy rain is still likely along the coast of Mexico through early next week. The possibility of land interaction makes the intensity forecast particularly difficult. Very warm SSTs and only moderate shear should allow for some strengthening for at least the next 36 hours. However, if Pilar makes landfall sooner than that, it will likely quickly weaken. Since my track forecast shows Pilar making landfall in about 24 hours, my intensity forecast peaks at that time, and shows steady weakening thereafter. Beginning around 48 h, the GFS and ECMWF show that the shear will increase substantially, which should cause Pilar to quickly become a remnant low, even if it remains over water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 18.7N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240256 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 15(15) 20(35) 5(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X 18(18) 20(38) 5(43) 4(47) 2(49) X(49) SAN BLAS 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P VALLARTA 34 3 46(49) 8(57) 1(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) P VALLARTA 50 X 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 22 4(26) 1(27) 1(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Graphics
    Tropical Storm Pilar 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 05:51:24 GMT

    Tropical Storm Pilar 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:39:10 GMT ]]>